Keep Hopes in Check for Lions in 2012

From reading articles and posts on forums, I see there are a lot of fans who have high hopes for the Lions in 2012. After all, they did just win 10 games last year didn't they?  The Lions did make the play-offs didn't they? Well some statistics are deceiving, I say. Keep your hopes in check!

Fans are ramped up about adding Reiff onto the offensive line, but they may be expecting too much too soon. It is not often an offensive lineman enters the league and plays great as a rookie. In college they play a lot of games against players that will never make the NFL. Once they take that step to the next level, they learn quickly that they are now facing the best of the best every game. They need time to get up to pace. They need time to develop. They need time to learn the blocking scheme. They need time to get used to the fact that they are no longer the best. Most rookies will be beat more often than we fans want to admit. If Reiff does end up starting, there will be growing pains. There will be a lack of continuity as well. Adding Reiff will be good for the offensive line in the years to come, but for this first year? It may not be all daisies and rainbows.

Though the pick was screamed about when it happened, it seems that most fans are being won over to the drafting of Broyles with the 2nd round pick. I have yet to see an argument that made any real sense for this coming year. All arguments that had solid reasoning were more about in the future when Burleson retires. In fact, the best argument for this year I have seen was that if one of the top three WR's get hurt, the Lions would be better apt to handle it.  To be honest, this does not cause me to believe the Lions are much better this year for it.

In the off-season, the Lions did not add any improvements to their team through free agency. The Lions did not draft any players that help us this year in a position of need.  Basically the Lions will enter the new season with essentially the same team as they ended last year.  Some fans are excited about that. I'm not one of them.

I get so tired of hearing fans mention that the Lions are a good team because they won ten games last year and made the play-offs. Those two points alone, makes most fans believe the Lions will win 10 games again this year and make the play-offs again as well. If the Lions would have beat a few good teams last year, I might join them. If the Lions would have beat just a couple decent teams last year, I would understand it. The fact that the Lions lost to every team they played who ended with a winning record? That tells me one thing. They won 10 games and made the play-offs for one reason and one reason only. They are an average team that played an easy schedule.

The Detroit Lions ended the season with a couple glaring weaknesses. Their secondary was absolutely torched on a consistent basis and they had no running game. In the draft, they passed up on one of the more talented CB's of the last few years in Jenkins because they were not ready to take a chance on his very minor off field baggage. So they took a tackle for the future and a 4th WR who is coming off of a major knee surgery. To my understanding, the Lions weakest run blockers are at Center, and Right Guard. Taking a tackle will not instantly help the running game by much.

Lets take a look at positions and whether they are improved or weaker or staying the same.....

QB - Stafford cannot be expected to be much better than 5,000 yards. He might repeat, but a slight step back to reality is also possible. Improvement is not to be counted on.
STATUS - Not improved!

RB - Best is a major health concern and cannot be counted on to last more than four or five games. Likely, he will not be much improved yet even if he is healthy. Leshoure had a major injury last year. Achilles if memory serves me. He may play this year, but the expectations so many fans have for him to be 100% is not logical. Yes there have been players who come back from the injury. Yes some come back the next year. It is still rare one comes back and is as good as before he had it, and even more rare for that to happen the following year. Let us be frank here. Kevin Smith is not going to be a real asset. He cannot stay healthy for more than a couple games before he is banged up, and when he is healthy he is no better than an average RB in the NFL. He is not fast, does not have good power, and is not overly shifty. He had one good game last year against the worst run defense in the NFL.
 STATUS - Not improved!

WR - Megatron is Megatron. He is the best WR in the NFL. I do not see him improving over what we already saw. Burleson is a long time veteran. What you see from him is the best you will get. A good receiver, but he will not improve. Young may still improve. He should, but it is usually year three a player truly breaks out and this will be his second year. Broyles? Face it, he will not be healthy right away, then he will have a learning curve to overcome. Count on him for 2013, not 2012.  All in all however, I have to state it again. Stafford and this crew passed for over 5,000 yards in 2011. How much improvement can you expect to see over the sixth best passing season ever?
STATUS - Not improved! 

TE - Should lump these guys in with the receivers, because that is all the really are. But it doesn't matter how I see them, Pettigrew, Scheffler, and Heller. Same guys as last year. Great TE's, but still the same ones.
STATUS - Not improved!

OL - Reiff may give them slightly better run blocking, but for his rookie season, he may not be an improvement in pass blocking as he will take a year to develop. (Like most OL's) Backus and Raiola will be another year older. Backus may be ready to start losing his abilities after the chest injury last year at his age. Raiola was already undersized. Getting older sure wont help.
STATUS - Not improved!(Maybe weaker as a whole.)

DL - I said it last year and I will say it again. This unit is already one of the best (if not the best) in the NFL. They are not going to get better!
STATUS - Not improved! 

LB - Same guys as last year. Some late round rookies added to the mix.
STATUS - Not improved!

CB - In 2011, the two best CBs were Houston and Wright. Wright was not very good, and he was still our second best. This unit was bad and needed to be addressed. It wasn't. Some have hopes of Berry breaking out. Until he shows he can do it, that cannot be counted on. The Rookie, Bentley, was a reach by the Lions and at least a round too early. He may learn to play well enough to start someday, but coming from a smaller school, I would be extremely surprised if it is this year.  Oh yeah, Wright left for another team.
STATUS - Weaker!

SAFETY -  Delmas is a good safety. He is who he is. I don't think we will see him grow much better and I don't think he has played over his head.  Spievey on the other hand, might yet surprise people. In 2010 he was horrible as the Lions moved him from CB to Safety and he was already dealing with the learning curve all rookies go through. Last year, he dealt with some injuries and got into some bad habits of throwing shoulder hits and not wrapping up for tackles. This is his third year (common breakout year), and he should be healthy. If he gets away from the bad habit, he could break out as a big improvement.
STATUS - Improved!

Special Teams - Don't expect huge improvements. With the NFL rules, kickers are putting the ball through the end-zone too often for many big returns. They had some bad games last year in coverage and they had some good games. I expect more of the same.
STATUS - Not improved!


Overall - The same coaches who have not shown the ability to adapt. Even Schwartz has said it himself. They don't make adjustments at half time. The great players just come out and make great plays in the second half. Expected to be the same "Wide Nine" Defensive scheme, where the DE's line up wide. This is great for pass rushing and horrible for run stopping. Thus, the huge 50 yard runs against them last year. Very little reason to believe the Lions will leave the Shotgun scheme behind them. The already average or injured RB's will be getting half of their carries from shotgun draw plays and that sets the running game up for failure. I don't care who is on the offensive line.

The Lions might be improved at Safety but will be weaker at CB, so the two wash each other out. Fans have hopes of a rookie Tackle and a rookie WR coming off a bad injury improving the team, but there are reasons to NOT believe they will improve the team as well. 
STATUS - Not improved!

 Basically this team did not improve from last year. So there is no good logical reason to believe they will suddenly start beating the good teams. If they couldn't beat a better than average team in 2011, do we have any real reason to believe they will in 2012? Yet, this year, they will have a tougher schedule.

Most fans seem to believe the Lions will take it up a notch from last year and win more than 10 games, or in the least, win ten games again. But facing the tougher schedule with what is basically the same team, I believe the fans will be in for a let down from their expectations.

You might say "what do you know?" to me right?  Just keep in mind. Last year I called them to win 10 games. The year before, I called them to win 5 or 6 games. I called for 3 or 4 games the year before that. The last time I was more than one game off was in 2008, and I don't believe ANYONE called for 0-16.

If the Lions stick to the same schemes, with these players and coaches, they will not improve on last year, and the schedule will likely take a win away.

Should Detroit Lions Pay Up for Cliff Avril?

DE, Cliff Avril wants to be paid like and elite player at his position. The Lions would like to resign him, but should they pay him what he wants?

First let us face some simple facts. If the Lions do not sign Avril, it is very unlikely the player who takes his place will give us 11 sacks. As a pass rusher he is very good and it is not all because of the attention Ndamukong Suh and the other defensive linemen draw. For that reason, the Lions are a better team with Cliff Avril manning the defensive end position than any of the others or even a rookie.

Yet you cannot completely discount the fact that Suh does draw double teams either. This does make Avril's job easier and though another player in his position would likely not get 11 sacks, if they are even decent, they should still get 7 or 8 sacks. If the Lions let Avril move on and replaced him with a player who gets 7 sacks and uses the money saved to add another player who improves another unit, that very well may be the better route.

So it is not simply a question about whether the Lions should sign him for what he wants or let him go. The question is more about, at what point is the money they would save and added to bringing another player in, more valuable than the 4 sacks more that Avril would bring to the table?

The Lions should definitely sign Cliff Avril.... if the price is right. If they cannot get him at a fair value and instead can add the money saved to what they would already offer a top-10 cornerback... well, then I say let Avril walk. The Lions would be better off with Avril than Lawrence Jackson if they cant improve the defensive back positions. Then again, they would be better off with Jackson and a top CB than Avril and what we already have in the defensive backfield.

I like Cliff Avril. I like the Detroit Lions more. The right thing for the Lions to do is to do what actually makes them a better team.

The simple fact is they will not always be able to keep everyone. The better they become, the more players they will be forced to watch walk away because those players want to make more money. Mayhew's job is not to try and keep everyone, but to make the best of every situation. To look over what players they potentially might lose and players they potentially may get and decide which players they can most afford to let walk. The Lions can afford to let Avril walk if he will not settle for less than elite status. They have a lot of depth on the D-line and Avril walking would not be a huge blow. The money can be used to improve other positions. So right now, Avril is the one free agent the Lions have the most freedom to play hardball with. And that is what they should do.

2011 Was a Deceiving Season for the Detroit Lions Offense

The Detroit Lions went 10-6 in their first winning season in forever. They made the play-offs and lost to the New Orleans Saints, who was a front runner to win the Superbowl at the time. Matthew Stafford played a full season and threw for over 5,000 yards. Most fans are happy with how the season went. It seems most fans see a defense that needs to be addressed and are happy with the offense. Most fans are being deceived.

In the ten wins of 2011, how many teams with winning records did the Lions beat? ... None! Not once did they beat a team that was better than average. The average record of the teams they beat? 6-10.

Well maybe the Lions played well and just barely lost to the better teams, right? Not so fast. In the Lions six losses, they were outscored 188 to 121. That averages out to be 31 to 20 per game. And that is including the 41 to 45 debacle in Green Bay to end the season. Take that game away and they were outscored 143 to 80 in the other five games. That averages to be 28 to 16 per game. In fact, the 41 points they scored in Green Bay was the only loss in which they scored more than 19 points. Their lowest opponents score was 23.

Now just stop and think about what this is saying. Look at the entire picture here for the Lions offense. Matthew Stafford had possibly the 5th best season for a quarterback in NFL history. He had the 5th all-time yards, 5th in completions, 3rd in attempts, and 7th all-time in touchdowns. Calvin Johnson's season was the 7th best in yards for a receiver in NFL history and his 16 TD's was 14th best. Brandon Pettigrew had the third most receptions for Tight Ends in 2011. How do you have those kind of players and have such a bad offense every time you play a decent team?

I went through the season looking for how many good solid drives the offense put together for a touchdown. This only includes drives starting in their own territory and the TD did not come on a big play. These are solid, consistent, play by the offense type of drives. There were only 6 games where the Lions had more than 2 good drives. Three times they had less than 2 good drives. A good offense should be able to put together at least two good drives a game.

In a 16 game schedule there are 64 quarters of play. The Lions had 29 quarters (45%) with no touchdowns. They had 13 quarters (20%) where they scored more than 1 TD. A total of 28 TDs. Think on that for a moment.... 56% of the Offense's touchdowns came inside of only 20% of the quarters they played! To put it in perspective, the Lions big time offense did most of their scoring inside of only 13 quarters while that same offense had no touchdowns in 29 quarters. To put it even clearer, they had this inconsistent and bad output on a season they played 10 games against opponents with 8-8 or worse records.

In the large picture, these are not horrible numbers, but they are far from being the numbers of a good offense. The Detroit Lions offense that sports the likes of Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Pettigrew, surrounded by other good receivers, should be more consistent than this. That offense should not disappear when they face a decent team. They had far too many games where the offense was non-existent for half of the game. 8 games where they only scored 1 TD or less in the entire first half! Why?

The first answer off most fans lips will be there was no running game. And they would be right. But why was there no running game? That is a two part answer.

1) Running Back issues - The Lions RBs were nothing special, and definitely nothing to fear. Maurice Morris looks to have finally hit his end. Smith had one good game against the worst run defense in the NFL, other than that he is mediocre at best. Jahvid Best cannot stay healthy. The truth is, the Lions have average running backs and nothing more. But even with average running backs, they should still have an average running game wouldn't you say? The Lions running game was Horrible with a Capital "H"! That leads to the second part.

2) Scheme - Far too often the RBs were asked to carry the ball on delayed hand-offs as they used the Draw Play out of the shotgun. There will never be a good running game that thrives from the shotgun scheme. But not only did they have to run from the shotgun half the time, but when they were under conventional sets, the running backs never had a lead blocker.

Single back running games are meant for running backs like Barry Sanders or Chris Johnson. They are meant for players that are so quick and shifty and have such good vision the defense cannot pin them down. You put in average to decent running backs in a single back style, and they will not make a good living.

Yet the Lions Offensive Coordinator, Scott Linehan insists on running a shotgun set and even when he comes out of the shotgun, he stays in the single back set. When he wants more blocking, he uses two tight ends. Now that might work to some degree, IF the running plays were called to the outside more often. But to have a two TE set and run inside most of the time where those TE's have no effect? Ridiculous! Then to run inside so often, not only with a single back set and average running backs, but to do it behind an underpowered Center? Pure foolishness.

The Lions offense this season was a big inconsistent problem when you really get down and look past the total points and passing yards. That problem was not due to a lack of talent so much as a coordinator who refused to adapt to what talent he had. He had great passing talent and stuck with that. He had mediocre running talent and was not willing to adapt his scheme to help it.