2011 NFL Draft - Year Of the Bust?

We are only a few days away from the 2011 NFL Draft, and there are all sorts of beliefs on what teams should do. I would like to take this opportunity to toss out my own advice. Beware of the bust! More than any year in recent memory, beware.

Let us go back in time, say about thirteen months ago. Remember the talk about how there might be a possible lockout in the coming year? How there was an influx of college players coming out early because they didn't want to get stuck with the rookie salary caps. The 2010 draft was considered one of the deepest in a long time.

Now I ask, if so many of the better players left college last year, what does that mean for this years draft class? Wouldn't that mean that there are not as many top players as in years before? That the top talent may not be as good as it was in years past? Sure you have some players who are absolutely great. Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, Von Miller, Marcell Dareus and others may fall into that category. But the overall depth and talent level of the 2011 draft is not as strong as in years past.

Then I have to take it a step further and ask, how good are the top players this year? We look at the stats and say, "My God, how can you say they are not great?", and like I said, they may be great. But I also have to consider the fact that because the college ranks were not quite as talented as years past, these great players had great stats playing against lesser opponents. They simply did not play against the level of opponents they would have if the best players didn't leave early last year. Again, these players likely are great talents. I am just saying, they may not be quite as good as their numbers make us believe.

NFL Owners, GMs and coaches, take this advice. Beware of any player whose stats took a leap in the last year over previous years. Those are the players that could truly have racked up big stats because they played against lesser talent than years past. If you like a top player, don't be afraid to move up for him this year. Go after the surest things you can, because the later you go in the draft, the less chance of finding a gem. Far more less likely than any year in the past.